Submitted by Philip Brewer on January 18, 2008 - 04:46.
Changes to taxes and government spending won't affect inflation (which is the money becoming less valuable), but they will affect prices--which makes it pretty hard to tell the difference, at least until long after the fact.
But there are two big problems with the instruments for increasing and reducing inflation (the instruments that change interest rates and the money supply):
First, they do other things, too. Raising interest rates doesn't just reduce the inflation rate. It also raises the value of the dollar (hurting exporters) and it generally reduces economic activity (hurting all businesses). Further, it hurts people who owe money with a variable interest rate, especially those who are owed money with a fixed interest rate.
Second, the economy isn't static. I's full of actors who respond to central bank activity by doing things--often things that magnify or minimize the effects of central bank activity. So, when the central bank is raising rates, there will be borrowers out there trying to get long-term, fixed-rate loans fighting it out with lenders trying to only make short-term or variable-rate loans. To the extent that either influence prevails over what would happen if things were stable, the economy suffers.
However unlikely hyperinflation is (and I think it's pretty unlikely), I don't think you can ever dismiss it as a possibility, especially when inflation is rising at the same time recession already threatens.
1
More like "two-edged," maybe
Submitted by Philip Brewer on January 18, 2008 - 04:46.
Changes to taxes and government spending won't affect inflation (which is the money becoming less valuable), but they will affect prices--which makes it pretty hard to tell the difference, at least until long after the fact.
But there are two big problems with the instruments for increasing and reducing inflation (the instruments that change interest rates and the money supply):
First, they do other things, too. Raising interest rates doesn't just reduce the inflation rate. It also raises the value of the dollar (hurting exporters) and it generally reduces economic activity (hurting all businesses). Further, it hurts people who owe money with a variable interest rate, especially those who are owed money with a fixed interest rate.
Second, the economy isn't static. I's full of actors who respond to central bank activity by doing things--often things that magnify or minimize the effects of central bank activity. So, when the central bank is raising rates, there will be borrowers out there trying to get long-term, fixed-rate loans fighting it out with lenders trying to only make short-term or variable-rate loans. To the extent that either influence prevails over what would happen if things were stable, the economy suffers.
However unlikely hyperinflation is (and I think it's pretty unlikely), I don't think you can ever dismiss it as a possibility, especially when inflation is rising at the same time recession already threatens.