Submitted by Philip Brewer on April 11, 2008 - 05:06.
I think you're absolutely right about energy, but I think that's almost divorced from the financial issues: Oil prices would be going up even if the dollar weren't in such trouble.
I'm much less worried about other stuff, such as lumber. The US has something like two-year's supply of unsold houses, so we could get along with a lot less lumber. (Granted, it's also used to build other things, make paper, etc. But, still--surging prices for lumber would hurt many businesses, but would not be a major factor for most people.)
But you're right--what we're going to see is surging prices for everything. Some of that surging price is going to be inflation (the money becoming less valuable, as people want to hold less) and some of it is going to be a falling standard of living (as the prices of everything that trades in global commerce rise, not just in dollar terms, but in real terms).
It's not going to be any fun, but the hard parts are set to happen anyway--no matter what foreign holders of US treasury paper do.
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Right on the nose about energy
Submitted by Philip Brewer on April 11, 2008 - 05:06.
I think you're absolutely right about energy, but I think that's almost divorced from the financial issues: Oil prices would be going up even if the dollar weren't in such trouble.
I'm much less worried about other stuff, such as lumber. The US has something like two-year's supply of unsold houses, so we could get along with a lot less lumber. (Granted, it's also used to build other things, make paper, etc. But, still--surging prices for lumber would hurt many businesses, but would not be a major factor for most people.)
But you're right--what we're going to see is surging prices for everything. Some of that surging price is going to be inflation (the money becoming less valuable, as people want to hold less) and some of it is going to be a falling standard of living (as the prices of everything that trades in global commerce rise, not just in dollar terms, but in real terms).
It's not going to be any fun, but the hard parts are set to happen anyway--no matter what foreign holders of US treasury paper do.