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Hyperinflation less likely

Submitted by Philip Brewer on April 23, 2008 - 18:57.

@Curt:

I actually think hyperinflation is not the most likely scenario.

I base that on three things:

  1. The people hit hardest by inflation are people with money (because the money is becoming less valuable).  People with money (as a group) are powerful enough in this country to significantly influence government policy.
  2. We know how to stop inflation.  As recently as the early 1980s there was considerable disagreement about that--some people thought controlling deficits was crucial, others thought it was controlling the growth in the money supply.  After Volker's success at the Fed, we now know that the money supply is what matters and that you can bring down inflation even while running huge deficits.
  3. Long-term interest rates are still quite low.  That suggests to me that large numbers of people with large amounts of money strongly believe that the dollar will still be worth a large fraction of its current value as far out as 30 year from now.

Hyperinflation is a danger.  I just don't think it's the biggest danger.

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