The Progression of Unemployment In the U.S.

[The Wise Buck]

I just posted this which simply shows the percentage progression of unemployment in the U.S. by county since 2007. Any guess where we stop?

http://thewisebuck.com/2009/11/15/th...nt-in-the-u-s/

[Socal104]

WiseBuck,
What's cool about that map is to see how the areas first affected where those with the craziest housing runup but further from the metropolitan centers and how it spreads rapidly to the "insulated" markets.

One thing I couldn't understand is how it ends up at 8.5% in September 2009? Should be 9.8% "official" completely bogus unemployment. U-6 which is far more accurate is 17.5% and realistically when you take out the government workers and the self-employed that can't really be fired, you get 20%.

We wrote an article about it last week that got a lot of traffic 10.2%? Would the Real Unemployment Rate Please Stand Up

I think that it would be interesting to see what U-6 looks like on a map like that.

In answer to your question, I think we will see official unemployment of about 13% at peak, U-6 of 21% and real private sector unemployment at 25-26%. The official number will be lower because of the high number of discouraged workers which will increase rapidly. Sobering but you can't expect everyone to be able to find a job in healthcare. Eventually even governments are going to swing the ax heavily as 20% revenue reductions become permanent. Local governments are already doing this and States are up next. If education starts to trim, look out because there are a ton of teachers.

Great map.

SoCal

[starshard0]

I really like how it creeps in to the Midwest from the coasts, really scary, like a zombie outbreak or something.

[trustno1]

Wow, now that is really cool. Really scary...but really a cool progression graphic!

Kind of reminds me of site on the net (I forget where it was) I used to visit years ago that showed the extent of exposure after a nuclear explosion, based on your location relative to hypothetical detonation points.

Holy Pac Man... now that I take a second look...there is not much difference in using unemployment or nuclear blast exposure hypotheticals, is there...?

I knew I lived in the Rockies for more than just the skiing...lol

[The Wise Buck]

Yes - it has been said that it starts in the West and then heads East, right? If you look at the state of CA - their problems are to be reckoned with. I've heard the Rockies are very scenic as well!

Real Estate Prices are falling and governments are trying to raise taxes in the face of growing unemployment. This is not a good recipe. I just posted a most interesting article about the secular real estate cycle we're in. You may find that very interesting from a historical perspective. http://thewisebuck.com/2009/11/26/a-...r-real-estate/

Socal, yes I agree; real unemployment is much much higher when you factor those who are out of work greater than 6 months, underemployed, etc. A great resource for this data is www.shadowstats.com

[MoneyMoments]

Fascinating! I am absolutely amazed at the creep. I had to watch it a few times to get the full impact. Though not an expert on unemployment numbers by any stretch, I do agree with SoCal104. I believe--when other indicators are taken into consideration--that the unemployment rate is probably higher than the numbers we are hearing.

I am going to pass that link on to friends and family. Absolutely fascinating!

[starshard0]

I think I heard someone say it looked like cirrhosis of the lung.

[The Wise Buck]

This video gets lot of views so I posted the updated video (Progression of Unemployment) with a few comments today.

http://thewisebuck.com/2010/02/06/cu...ated-2-5-2010/