financial risk

Wise Bread's Best and Worst Financial Decisions in 2010

Meg Favreau — Sun, 23 Jan 2011 22:36:53 +0000

With all the rush and stress of the holidays, I find it difficult to spend my late December reflecting on the last 12 months of my life. But now that we're nicely settled into 2011, some of my fellow Wise Bread writers and I have been doing some thinking about 2010 and the great (or terrible) financial decisions we made last year.

One of the best decisions I made in 2010 was to splurge on a half-off certificate for housecleaning from LivingSocial...for a house I wasn't living in. I usually consider housecleaning services to be an unnecessary waste of money: Why pay someone when I can do it myself? But this year I moved during the aforementioned stressful December, and I realized that I could avoid so much extra work and fretting by hiring someone to clean my previous house for me. Being able to spend less time dusting baseboards and more time with my friends and family was so worth it.

One of my worst financial decisions of 2010 also comes via LivingSocial...and Groupon...and all of the other daily deals websites I've signed up for. I love trying new dining and drinking establishments, so I frequently purchase bar and restaurant certificates from these sites. However, multiple times in 2010, I lost track of expiration dates and accidently let certificates I purchased expire. This year, I've vowed to keep better track of these purchases, and every time I buy one, I now mark its expiration date on my calendar.

Here are some more of our writers' best (and worst) financial moves of 2010

Temporarily Leaving the Rat Race

Thursday Bram: In 2010, I made what turned out to be a great financial decision. I took a month off from work.

I run my own business, working for clients on various projects in order to bring in work. I've been doing so full-time for over three years. But I also have plenty of my own side projects that bring in money. I've written ebooks, run blogs, and and generally focused on using my strengths as a writer to build income sources. But I'm constantly frustrated by the fact that I don't have a lot of time to work on these side projects. Personally, I prioritize client work because it's cash in hand — I get payment a lot faster than when I'm developing a product of my own.

In September, though, I told my clients I was taking a month off from work. Honestly, I'd hit a point where I was burnt out, and I was dealing with a family situation anyhow, so I needed some time away. I certainly didn't work straight through October, but in addition to taking a much needed vacation, I figured out a new product that will make it possible to cut back on my client work — and I got most of the preliminary work done on it. I'm still working part-time to finish it up.

Taking a full month off of client work was a tough decision for me — I had to plan my financial situation very carefully, and it caused me some problems. But it remains one of the best financial decisions I made in 2010.

Taking a Sub-Par Summer Job

Margaret Garcia-Couoh: I was all excited when the college I teach for asked me to teach American Lit and World Lit this summer. Normally, I'm bogged down with composition classes so I was super excited to expose kids to literature instead of nagging them about paper writing.

Of course in my excitement I forgot that my own kids would be out of school and would have to be in daycare. Then the price of gas went up in our area. Then I found out that since summer school was for less units and for high school students, I wouldn't be paid my regular salary.

I'd have made more if I'd have just gone on unemployment. Instead I wound up paying my babysitter and the gas station nearly all the money I made from summer school! On top of that the high school students never read and were ill prepared for discussion. I killed my own summer for no reason at all. Never again! Much more cost effective to just stay home with the kids and have fun!

Asking About a Deal

Linsey Knerl: Our local Walgreens is over 20 minutes away, so making special trip is not a good use of gas money (or time). When I found out from a deal blog in May that they were clearing out all of their store brand diapers for $2 a pack, however, I jetted down and cleaned them out. I was worried that I was too much of a "deal hog," so I checked with the manager to see if it was OK. Not only did she approve me buying out the shelves, she brought several more packages up from the back to sell me. "Please take these off our hands so we can stock the new products," she begged. I went home with my Suburban full of diapers in all sizes and less than $50 spent out of pocket. My new baby, born in June, is set — for the rest of his diapered life, anyway.

Setting Aside Specific Savings

Julie Rains: The greatest financial decision for 2010 was to set aside money specifically designated to pay real estate property taxes and homeowner's insurance. We haven't had to take such basic actions in the past because my husband and I just recently paid off the mortgage, and these expenses were included in a monthly payment (held in escrow and then paid by the loan servicer).

Seeing how much needs to be set aside is somewhat of a wake-up call; that is, though we could afford to make house payments on a larger house (and probably snag a great bargain right now!), certain things — like property taxes, insurance, plus upkeep — would still be high.

In recent years, we haven't been as disciplined about designating savings. Making this decision helps us focus on saving for saving's sake and reaching longer-term goals.

Did you make an especially great or terrible financial decision in 2010? Share it in the comments!

This article is from Meg Favreau of Wise Bread, an award-winning personal finance and credit card comparison website. Read more great articles from Wise Bread:

Choosing Your Path to Prosperity

David Ning — Fri, 21 Jan 2011 13:00:54 +0000

Let's imagine for a second that there is a contest going on where you can earn a cool $1,000,000 for finding a coin lying on the floor somewhere in a dark room. There is no time limit, and you are given two choices — either find the coin in dark room A, where you can roam around freely, or dark room B, where the room is really just a narrow hallway and only one person can fit through.

Adding to the twist is that the second room, the narrow hallway, has a four-foot ceiling, meaning you need to either crawl or at least be on your knees the whole way. Furthermore, you are told that the coin is just at the end of the corridor, where the only challenge then is your endurance in making it to the end. The hallway could be 15 miles long, and you'd have to crawl the whole way, but it's still a sure thing if you are patient.

So, which would you pick, and why?

Room A is a solid choice, given that it could take years to crawl through room B. After all, in room A, you can roam around freely trying to find that coin, and if you are lucky, you can pick up the million dollar prize in no time.

But think about the reality for a second. Once you are in room A, everything is pitch black. You have no idea how big the room is. In fact, you might need to run for a long time before you hit the walls. You will be excited and energetic at first, but as time goes on and you are still in the dark, will you still have the confidence that you will eventually find that coin? As anxiety sets in, will you give up or keep looking?

On the other hand, in room B, you are pretty much guaranteed to eventually get the reward. You are most definitely not going to find it quickly, but you know that if you keep crawling, the coin will be there, and the million will be yours. Now, which will you pick?

The Real Path to Prosperity

When it comes to your investment decisions, do you use the same logic to make the your choice? Many people read about the long-term growth potential of the stock market, and they ignore volatility because they believe that time is on their side, but is that you? Do you pick room A, where you have a chance to strike it big instantly by picking that awesome hot stock with no guarantees that you will ever find it, or room B, where you buy a diversified basket of low-cost index funds, lowering the volatility and pretty much guaranteeing yourself a smaller but steadier appreciation over time?

Tons of people still have a huge equity exposure because they ration that as long as they stay the course, everything will be okay. But what about the 50%+ drop of the S&P 500 in 2008? If you are in room A, what happens when fatigue sets in and you start doubting your chances? Should you keep looking and stay invested?

Volatility makes a huge difference in your investment returns. Risk tolerance is not only a test of your youth, but also a test of your mental toughness. For many people, the narrow hallway is a better approach.

The good news is that unlike the contest, you can drastically shorten the hallway of room B by being financially responsible. You can raise the ceiling to more than 10 feet by saving more or shorten the hallway by spending less.

For the responsible, the million is theirs for the taking if they choose the safe (and somewhat boring) approach.

This article is from David Ning of Wise Bread, an award-winning personal finance and credit card comparison website. Read more great articles from Wise Bread:

5 Reasons to Ignore the January Effect

Darwins Money — Thu, 09 Dec 2010 13:00:09 +0000

It's that time of year where the stock-market myth about the January Effect rears its ugly head, so it's also time to point out why investors shouldn't alter their existing investment strategies to try to chase returns that are no more likely to materialize than if they did nothing at all.

The concept of the January Effect is that stock prices tend to increase in the month of January each year, more so than other months. Therefore, investors who purchased securities during the month of December are, in theory, likely to be rewarded with outsized gains if they sell later in January of the new year. The concept gained prominence in the 1980s based on a review of historical data showing the phenomena was relatively common going all the way back to 1925. The theory is that in December, investors sell losing stocks at year-end to offset capital gains elsewhere, thus artificially depressing share prices of stocks that were already negative on the year. Investors then swoop in and re-buy those same shares in January.

According to a recent CNBC article, December is the new January, and investors should start buying now. They go on to recommend purchasing this year's losing stocks in the S&P 500 index. Well, I'm not buying it at all. Here are several reasons why this advice should be ignored:

Market Efficiency

There's an age-old debate about efficient markets and whether the theory holds true, but in essence, many economists believe that there is so much information provided to the investing public in real time, that at any given time, asset prices do reflect all currently known information, and thus assets are fairly valued. While some would counter that insider information and near-term panics like the recent flash-crash alter the notion of efficient markets, the January Effect would be immune to these characteristics (i.e. no more likely to experience insider trading than any other stock). In this particular example, since the January Effect myth is so widely propagated, it is unlikely to occur each and every year without investors arbitraging the spread in performance and reducing it to random chance.

The Internet

The Internet takes market efficiency to a whole new level. Whereas historically the January Effect was relegated to academic papers, books, and newspapers, now there are instant reminders like the aforementioned CNBC article constantly prompting investors to fulfill the prophecy. This just results in front-running, hence eliminating the purported benefit.

It's Not Guaranteed

There have been some years where the January Effect did not achieve its desired effect. Do you want to experiment this year and find out if this is one of those years? Investing in an FDIC-insured CD provides you with a guaranteed return. Stock market investing does anything but.

Standard Deviation and Investment Risk

Would you bet $100 to win an extra $1 in a game of chance? Probably not. While overly simplified, the concept holds true. If attempting to exploit the January effect, you are, in essence, taking on market risk with very high volatility for a marginal return. By subjecting yourself to a brief attempt to "beat the market" with this gimmick, you're putting yourself at undue risk given the relatively paltry return.

Commissions, Taxes, and Net Benefit

Shifting money from your existing holdings in order to exploit this supposed effect and then selling again within a month is likely to erode any possible benefit that was realized. Not only would you incur commissions on the buying and selling, but you will have generated tax liabilities on the strategy as well. At the end of the day, what will the net benefit be? A highly randomized return minus commissions.

To recap, it has been proven time and time again that the best approach for retail investors is to stick to a long-term investment strategy focusing on diversification and low fees, and not reacting to external market jitters and hype. I may well be proven wrong come January, but I would chalk that up to random chance. I'll take my boring, ETF investing approach any day.

Are you going to experiment with the January Effect?

This article is from Darwins Money of Wise Bread, an award-winning personal finance and credit card comparison website. Read more great articles from Wise Bread:

Cavalcade of Risk - November 4, 2009 - How Much Assurance Does Your Insurance Offer?

Debbie Dragon — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 16:36:29 +0000

Welcome to the November 4, 2009 Cavalcade of Risk — the How Much Assurance Does Your Insurance Offer edition! As I was going through the submissions for this particular carnival, I noticed a large number of insurance related topics. Does that mean we're becoming more concerned about whether we have enough (or the right types) of insurance? Or was it just a coincidence? Whether you've got concerns about life insurance, car insurance, health insurance or business insurance — you can find information in this carnival.

LIFE INSURANCE

FMF takes on the life insurance debate, with How Much Life Insurance Do You Need? posted at Free Money Finance, saying, "A simple formula to determine how much life insurance you need."

Jeff Rose always looks at whether things make good financial "cents" or not. Here's his theory on Should You Buy (ROP) Return on Premium Term Life Insurance?

Tom @ Canadian Finance Blog discusses life insurance and children. I have life insurance for my children but have always wondered whether or not it's a good use of money. Tom thinks not — here's his take: Insurance You Can Do Without — Life Insurance For Your Child posted at The Canadian Finance Blog.

Peter helps us decide when is the right time to get that life insurance policy in When Should I Buy A Life Insurance Policy? Should I Wait Until I Have Children Or Dependents? posted at Bible Money Matters.

CAR INSURANCE

Colin Robertson asks Do I Need Car Insurance if I Don’t Own a Car? posted at The Truth About Insurance.com.

HEALTH INSURANCE

Henry Stern, LUTCF, CBC sent us High Risk Obamacare from InsureBlog, saying, "Bob Vineyard explains that a new high risk pool included in ObamaCare could really end up hurting the very folks it seeks to help."

David Williams presents Fears of the public option are overblown posted at Health Business Blog, saying, "Big business thinks the public option will put them at risk for cost shifting and the elimination of the private health insurance industry. I think their fears about the risk are overblown."

Jason Shafrin talks about the cost of health care — “Health care, at any level, cannot be equated in dollars and cents.” at Healthcare Economist

Jaan Sidorov gives us More Implications on the Suspended Animation of the Medicare Medical Home Demonstration

BUSINESS INSURANCE

Nancy Germond, ARM, AIC, ITP presents Admitting You Are Wrong May Limit Claims posted at AllBusiness.com — Risk Management for the 21st Century

OTHER RISKS

Peak Personal Finance tackles the risks involved with Lending Money to Friends and Family posted at Peak Personal Finance, saying, "Lending money to friends and family can be risky business!"

Silicon Valley Blogger presents Stock Market Timing: Advice For Investors posted at The Digerati Life, saying, "Is market timing a way to reduce or manage risk? Or is it a highly risky strategy when investing? The debate rages on."

Dugan presents Why Release People we Think are High Risk? Well, who said risk wasn't controversial? Dugan Z wonders about allowing sex-offenders to live in family-centric neighborhoods is a good idea, and is stunned by how easy it is to use Google-maps to find them.

Thanks for checking out the carnival! If you have some time, check out some of the great posts from the bloggers on Wise Bread — there's a little something for everyone here. Submit your blog article to the next edition of cavalcade of risk using our carnival submission form. Past posts and future hosts can be found on our blog carnival index page.

This article is from Debbie Dragon of Wise Bread, an award-winning personal finance and credit card comparison website. Read more great articles from Wise Bread: