We're house hunting right now with a friend as our agent. Our families are good friends and attend the same church.
He is 100% honest and trust-worthy to us. He's normally the first person to point out problems or potential problems with a house or neighborhood. He would say, "As your agent, it's really not professional for me to say this, but as your friend, I have to tell you..."
It takes so much stress out of the process when you don't have to filter what your realtor says to you and know that he's actually watching out for your interest.
Alright, i'll make the math easy for you. Go here http://www.usgovernmentspending.com/budget_pie_gs.php?span=usgs302&year=... and you cut the $1.6 Trillion by cutting contrat workers and special programs. Even if you could, which you can't you are pulling $1.6 trillion out of the economy and expecting it not to crash jobs and GDP. The numbers simply do not add up. I'm sorry but the more you understand about this, instead of just guess according to your previous experience in another matter, the more you realize that it will crash our economy. Here is a breakdown of the military budget remeber it includes service on its debt, paychecks for military families, a few overseas operations, base upkeep, and a few other things you can't cut even if you did decide to put all millitary contract workers out of business (which you really can't because there are a decent number of them helping us fight in overseas engagements) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_budget_of_the_United_States. So work on the numbers and come back to me when you've figured out how to hit the debt ceiling and not send us into a depression. This is not an issue of putting your finger to the wind and feeling something is right, it is a math problem and there is only one right answer.
I tend not to blame speculation for the swings in oil prices. As I explain above, I think most of the price action can be blamed on actual fundamental moves in supply and demand.
When you think about it, speculation ought to be stabilizing—the smart speculators are going to be buying low and selling high. That ought to support prices when they're low and limit increases when prices are high. Of course there are plenty of stupid speculators who try to buy in after prices are already high, adding to the price spikes, but they tend to get wiped out when the bubble bursts. That limits their ability to make the same mistake again.
Oh, I agree with you on the policy prescriptions. Congresses is living a preposterous fantasy when it appropriates spending in excess of taxes and then refuses to raise the debt limit. It show all the maturity of a 6-year-old.
I think you're wrong, though, about the size of the "contract" work as a fraction of the Federal budget. For example, most of the defense budget (basically, everything except salaries) are obligations of the sort that I figure will get deferred. Military contractor companies won't get paid, defense contractors won't get paid, landlords won't get paid, companies that perform maintenance or supply spare parts won't get paid, companies that provide water and food won't get paid, companies that supply fuel won't get paid, etc. There's a lot of money there.
Obviously there are limits. I mean, the pure defense contractors would have to just suck it up, because what else are they going to do? But companies that have the choice between selling to the Federal government and selling to firms that actually pay their bills might well tell the government that it had to pay cash in advance or there'd be no more shipments. (I'd expect the government to have to start paying cash for fuel, for example.)
I'm certainly not advocating this strategy. I'm just saying that the result would not be a disaster—less like a slow-motion train wreck than like a slow-motion special effect of a train wreck.
I want to give a shout-out to the recommendation for metacritic.com. Two things make this distinct from rotten-tomatoes. First, it consists entirely of reputable critic sources. Second, it rates the film in a 1-100 scale, as opposed to a Good/Bad scale. Which makes it a lot more accurate. Years ago I saw "Lincoln Heights", a small coming-of-age movie that scored a 100 on rotten-tomatoes, and was somewhat disappointed with the hype. Only upon a closer look, it was because it was as if it scored 100% on positive 3-star reviews. By contrast, metacritic would have more accurately focused on its rating (at which point it would receive a 75% (3 stars)).
Second, note how movies have sometimes changed over time (or, perhaps we change). Some movies got notoriously bad reviews upon initial release, only to be discovered of their greatness as our society changes (John Carpenter's The Thing, Bonnie and Clyde, etc), or a director's cut is released that improves upon the theatrical release (Kingdom of Heaven, Leon:The Professional). A good place to keep tibs on these sorts of films are on imdb.com's Top 250 page.
NO DONATIONS TO ANY POLITICIAN UNTIL $ 4 BILLION TAX BREAKS FOR OIL COMPANIES ARE ELIMINATED AND CFTC FIXES OIL SPECULATION TRADING LAWS ------ CONSUMERS CONTROL 70 % OF ECONOMY - LET'S USE THAT CONTROL ------ WRITE YOUR ELECTED OFFICIALS TODAY ---- NO MONEY UNTIL YOU FIX THIS -----PERIOD
Definitely! The library has actually become one of my favorite places to visit each week. I used to spend $$$ on books and movies each weekend, and now I don't spend a penny and have just as much enjoyment!
The debt ceiling for the federal government is nothing like the debt ceiling for Illinois. I know to the casual observer that this might seem to be the case but it is not. The Illinois does not have Defense, Social Security, and Medicare as it's largest spending items. If the debt ceiling is not at least temporarily raised it will force the government to do one of two things:
1. Default on its debt which would drive us into the next great depression.
2. Start paying our bills on a month-to-month plan which would provide us less money than we need to fund defense, Social Security, and Medicare alone much less everything else. We would certainly stop paying contract workers as well as military workers along with most of Social Security and Medicare. We would see government contract works and government workers lose their paychecks. This would take our current unemployement rate up by at least another 18% again causing another depression.
While you mental short cuts are easy to make you need to look at the shortfall and where our federal money is spent. Contract work is a very small portion of our national budget, certainly much smaller than this years shortfall. So unlike Illinois if the our elected officials believe the same thing would happen, they could very well crash our economy much worse than the banks did.
While we need to raise taxes, cut spending on Defense, Social Security, and Medicare in the long run letting us hit the debt ceiling to protest our unacceptable deficit is the wrong thing to do. It would cause a disaster from which we would not likely recover.
Preventing that is a big part of the reason things are set up the way they are—with the central bank separate from the Treasury.
If the Treasury couldn't borrow money (because lenders didn't trust the US to pay the money back), then you'd expect things to go along the course you outline—the Treasury would issue debt, the central bank would buy it (with newly created dollars), and then the Treasury would spend the new money. That would cause inflation and lots of it.
At the moment, investors seem to be quite willing to buy Treasury securities. The problem with the debt ceiling is that Congress has told the Treasury to spend money (by appropriating it) but isn't raising enough in taxes to cover the bill—and is telling the Treasury not to borrow it either.
I think you're right that the long-term trend is up, simply because of physical resource constraints. But I think that's only half the story. Prices will also sometimes go down, because there's a lot of low-hanging fruit in terms of energy conservation possibilities.
Of course, once prices go down, they'll go back up again.
I think energy prices will always go up, It provides huge tax income. It is possible to save energy by renewables but I dont think governments are keen to promote that too much as they worry about the tax income they will loose.
It is up to us all to make our own decissions to save energy
Your article is dangerous and misleading for a number of reasons:
1.It is a breach of the listing agent's fudiciary responsibility to the seller to disclose the contents of other offers to anyone other than the seller.
2.Based on your story, buyers will assume that a listing agent will be working on their behalf. Dual agency does not support this. While it is legal for the listing agent to handle both sides of the transaction, they can legally only represent the seller. They are not obligated to buyer in any way as they do not and cannot have a buyer agency relationship under dual agency.
3.The agent will never reduce the commission by half. There may be a reduction but it will not be half. Get it in writing in the offer.
Baltbear, what exactly happened in the last few months to cause oil to double in price? Please enlighten us? Was it the same catastrophe that hit us last time oil double in price, which was proven to be pure speculation?
If we reach our limit, we will see a steady climb over time. This is nothing of the sort and you know it. Maybe you should sssstop trying to sound clever and go back to the rock you crawled out from.
sorry, but you missed one of the main (probably the main) reason for high gas prices -> the weak dollar, now at its lowest point since 2008 testing the all-time lows ever for the dollar. The Fed has essentially printed money by monetizing the federal debt.
Oil is priced in $, so as dollars get weak oil price correspondingly increases. That's the vast majority of why prices have skyrocketed.
This is excellent and helped me spot some red flags. I didn't score too highly unfortunately but I'd love to hear your thoughts on rewriting the signs. I can't help but think there would be some creative ways to resolve some of these and tip the scales back in my favor.
I do a spring cleaning in general, but I do go through my clothes closet once or twice a year. I do this because, inevitably, I find stuff I've rarely worn, stuff that has come back into style, or new ways of wearing old stuff. It's like going shopping in my own home and saves on my clothing bills.
:"not by sudden demand or lack of resources. ""
really? it must be---some blogger said so.
the planet can deliver no more than 87-89 million bpd.
the closer demand gets to that point, the higher the price goes, until demand drops.
the usa already has deals with the saudis, etc.
want to drive the price back to $1.29 in a year?
turn off china and india.
just erase them.
until you can, perhaps you might limit urself to walking or chewing gum,
and sstop attempting both at the same time.
Thanks for the egg carton tip. I have seeds sitting on my counter, and I was thinking I would start them in a pot inside before transplanting, but the egg carton is a much better idea. Thanks for the suggestion.
I spring clean. Learned it from my mother. I love to open up the house fter all the months of closing the windows and give it a good thorough cleaning. And throw stuff away! I love the way it looks when it is done and I feel so much more organized.
Spring cleaning and organizing are regular activities throughout the year for me. A little bit at a time goes a long way and doesn't very long to do. =)
We're house hunting right now with a friend as our agent. Our families are good friends and attend the same church.
He is 100% honest and trust-worthy to us. He's normally the first person to point out problems or potential problems with a house or neighborhood. He would say, "As your agent, it's really not professional for me to say this, but as your friend, I have to tell you..."
It takes so much stress out of the process when you don't have to filter what your realtor says to you and know that he's actually watching out for your interest.
I dunno if I'd call it spring cleaning, but I do try to clean a bit more intentionally.
Alright, i'll make the math easy for you. Go here http://www.usgovernmentspending.com/budget_pie_gs.php?span=usgs302&year=... and you cut the $1.6 Trillion by cutting contrat workers and special programs. Even if you could, which you can't you are pulling $1.6 trillion out of the economy and expecting it not to crash jobs and GDP. The numbers simply do not add up. I'm sorry but the more you understand about this, instead of just guess according to your previous experience in another matter, the more you realize that it will crash our economy. Here is a breakdown of the military budget remeber it includes service on its debt, paychecks for military families, a few overseas operations, base upkeep, and a few other things you can't cut even if you did decide to put all millitary contract workers out of business (which you really can't because there are a decent number of them helping us fight in overseas engagements) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_budget_of_the_United_States. So work on the numbers and come back to me when you've figured out how to hit the debt ceiling and not send us into a depression. This is not an issue of putting your finger to the wind and feeling something is right, it is a math problem and there is only one right answer.
I tend not to blame speculation for the swings in oil prices. As I explain above, I think most of the price action can be blamed on actual fundamental moves in supply and demand.
When you think about it, speculation ought to be stabilizing—the smart speculators are going to be buying low and selling high. That ought to support prices when they're low and limit increases when prices are high. Of course there are plenty of stupid speculators who try to buy in after prices are already high, adding to the price spikes, but they tend to get wiped out when the bubble bursts. That limits their ability to make the same mistake again.
Oh, I agree with you on the policy prescriptions. Congresses is living a preposterous fantasy when it appropriates spending in excess of taxes and then refuses to raise the debt limit. It show all the maturity of a 6-year-old.
I think you're wrong, though, about the size of the "contract" work as a fraction of the Federal budget. For example, most of the defense budget (basically, everything except salaries) are obligations of the sort that I figure will get deferred. Military contractor companies won't get paid, defense contractors won't get paid, landlords won't get paid, companies that perform maintenance or supply spare parts won't get paid, companies that provide water and food won't get paid, companies that supply fuel won't get paid, etc. There's a lot of money there.
Obviously there are limits. I mean, the pure defense contractors would have to just suck it up, because what else are they going to do? But companies that have the choice between selling to the Federal government and selling to firms that actually pay their bills might well tell the government that it had to pay cash in advance or there'd be no more shipments. (I'd expect the government to have to start paying cash for fuel, for example.)
I'm certainly not advocating this strategy. I'm just saying that the result would not be a disaster—less like a slow-motion train wreck than like a slow-motion special effect of a train wreck.
I want to give a shout-out to the recommendation for metacritic.com. Two things make this distinct from rotten-tomatoes. First, it consists entirely of reputable critic sources. Second, it rates the film in a 1-100 scale, as opposed to a Good/Bad scale. Which makes it a lot more accurate. Years ago I saw "Lincoln Heights", a small coming-of-age movie that scored a 100 on rotten-tomatoes, and was somewhat disappointed with the hype. Only upon a closer look, it was because it was as if it scored 100% on positive 3-star reviews. By contrast, metacritic would have more accurately focused on its rating (at which point it would receive a 75% (3 stars)).
Second, note how movies have sometimes changed over time (or, perhaps we change). Some movies got notoriously bad reviews upon initial release, only to be discovered of their greatness as our society changes (John Carpenter's The Thing, Bonnie and Clyde, etc), or a director's cut is released that improves upon the theatrical release (Kingdom of Heaven, Leon:The Professional). A good place to keep tibs on these sorts of films are on imdb.com's Top 250 page.
NO DONATIONS TO ANY POLITICIAN UNTIL $ 4 BILLION TAX BREAKS FOR OIL COMPANIES ARE ELIMINATED AND CFTC FIXES OIL SPECULATION TRADING LAWS ------ CONSUMERS CONTROL 70 % OF ECONOMY - LET'S USE THAT CONTROL ------ WRITE YOUR ELECTED OFFICIALS TODAY ---- NO MONEY UNTIL YOU FIX THIS -----PERIOD
Hi Kelly, A belated congrats!!! Exciting news to see you over here at Wise Bread! Best regards, Barb
Definitely! The library has actually become one of my favorite places to visit each week. I used to spend $$$ on books and movies each weekend, and now I don't spend a penny and have just as much enjoyment!
The debt ceiling for the federal government is nothing like the debt ceiling for Illinois. I know to the casual observer that this might seem to be the case but it is not. The Illinois does not have Defense, Social Security, and Medicare as it's largest spending items. If the debt ceiling is not at least temporarily raised it will force the government to do one of two things:
1. Default on its debt which would drive us into the next great depression.
2. Start paying our bills on a month-to-month plan which would provide us less money than we need to fund defense, Social Security, and Medicare alone much less everything else. We would certainly stop paying contract workers as well as military workers along with most of Social Security and Medicare. We would see government contract works and government workers lose their paychecks. This would take our current unemployement rate up by at least another 18% again causing another depression.
While you mental short cuts are easy to make you need to look at the shortfall and where our federal money is spent. Contract work is a very small portion of our national budget, certainly much smaller than this years shortfall. So unlike Illinois if the our elected officials believe the same thing would happen, they could very well crash our economy much worse than the banks did.
While we need to raise taxes, cut spending on Defense, Social Security, and Medicare in the long run letting us hit the debt ceiling to protest our unacceptable deficit is the wrong thing to do. It would cause a disaster from which we would not likely recover.
Preventing that is a big part of the reason things are set up the way they are—with the central bank separate from the Treasury.
If the Treasury couldn't borrow money (because lenders didn't trust the US to pay the money back), then you'd expect things to go along the course you outline—the Treasury would issue debt, the central bank would buy it (with newly created dollars), and then the Treasury would spend the new money. That would cause inflation and lots of it.
At the moment, investors seem to be quite willing to buy Treasury securities. The problem with the debt ceiling is that Congress has told the Treasury to spend money (by appropriating it) but isn't raising enough in taxes to cover the bill—and is telling the Treasury not to borrow it either.
Couldn't the Treasury just mint more money? Inflation is a bad way to handle it, but there would definitely be that pressure from the contractors.
I think you're right that the long-term trend is up, simply because of physical resource constraints. But I think that's only half the story. Prices will also sometimes go down, because there's a lot of low-hanging fruit in terms of energy conservation possibilities.
Of course, once prices go down, they'll go back up again.
You need to be ready for both.
I think energy prices will always go up, It provides huge tax income. It is possible to save energy by renewables but I dont think governments are keen to promote that too much as they worry about the tax income they will loose.
It is up to us all to make our own decissions to save energy
Your article is dangerous and misleading for a number of reasons:
1.It is a breach of the listing agent's fudiciary responsibility to the seller to disclose the contents of other offers to anyone other than the seller.
2.Based on your story, buyers will assume that a listing agent will be working on their behalf. Dual agency does not support this. While it is legal for the listing agent to handle both sides of the transaction, they can legally only represent the seller. They are not obligated to buyer in any way as they do not and cannot have a buyer agency relationship under dual agency.
3.The agent will never reduce the commission by half. There may be a reduction but it will not be half. Get it in writing in the offer.
Baltbear, what exactly happened in the last few months to cause oil to double in price? Please enlighten us? Was it the same catastrophe that hit us last time oil double in price, which was proven to be pure speculation?
If we reach our limit, we will see a steady climb over time. This is nothing of the sort and you know it. Maybe you should sssstop trying to sound clever and go back to the rock you crawled out from.
sorry, but you missed one of the main (probably the main) reason for high gas prices -> the weak dollar, now at its lowest point since 2008 testing the all-time lows ever for the dollar. The Fed has essentially printed money by monetizing the federal debt.
Oil is priced in $, so as dollars get weak oil price correspondingly increases. That's the vast majority of why prices have skyrocketed.
The central bank should sell oil futures.
Thanks for including my post in this list of wonderful articles!
This is excellent and helped me spot some red flags. I didn't score too highly unfortunately but I'd love to hear your thoughts on rewriting the signs. I can't help but think there would be some creative ways to resolve some of these and tip the scales back in my favor.
I do a spring cleaning in general, but I do go through my clothes closet once or twice a year. I do this because, inevitably, I find stuff I've rarely worn, stuff that has come back into style, or new ways of wearing old stuff. It's like going shopping in my own home and saves on my clothing bills.
:"not by sudden demand or lack of resources. ""
really? it must be---some blogger said so.
the planet can deliver no more than 87-89 million bpd.
the closer demand gets to that point, the higher the price goes, until demand drops.
the usa already has deals with the saudis, etc.
want to drive the price back to $1.29 in a year?
turn off china and india.
just erase them.
until you can, perhaps you might limit urself to walking or chewing gum,
and sstop attempting both at the same time.
Thanks for the egg carton tip. I have seeds sitting on my counter, and I was thinking I would start them in a pot inside before transplanting, but the egg carton is a much better idea. Thanks for the suggestion.
I spring clean. Learned it from my mother. I love to open up the house fter all the months of closing the windows and give it a good thorough cleaning. And throw stuff away! I love the way it looks when it is done and I feel so much more organized.
Spring cleaning and organizing are regular activities throughout the year for me. A little bit at a time goes a long way and doesn't very long to do. =)