The top story of the year is that global crude oil production peaked in 2008.
The media, governments, world leaders, and public should focus on this issue.
Global crude oil production had been rising briskly until 2004, then plateaued for four years. Because oil producers were extracting at maximum effort to profit from high oil prices, this plateau is a clear indication of Peak Oil.
Then in August and September of 2008 while oil prices were still very high, global crude oil production fell nearly one million barrels per day, clear evidence of Peak Oil (See Rembrandt Koppelaar, Editor of "Oil Watch Monthly," December 2008, page 1) http://www.peakoil.nl/wp-content/uploads/2008/12/2008_december_oilwatch_....
Peak Oil is now.
Credit for accurate Peak Oil predictions (within a few years) goes to the following (projected year for peak given in parentheses):
* Association for the Study of Peak Oil (2007)
* Rembrandt Koppelaar, Editor of “Oil Watch Monthly” (2008)
* Tony Eriksen, Oil stock analyst; Samuel Foucher, oil analyst; and Stuart Staniford, Physicist [Wikipedia Oil Megaprojects] (2008)
* Matthew Simmons, Energy investment banker, (2007)
* T. Boone Pickens, Oil and gas investor (2007)
* U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (2005)
* Kenneth S. Deffeyes, Princeton professor and retired shell geologist (2005)
* Sam Sam Bakhtiari, Retired Iranian National Oil Company geologist (2005)
* Chris Skrebowski, Editor of “Petroleum Review” (2010)
* Sadad Al Husseini, former head of production and exploration, Saudi Aramco (2008)
* Energy Watch Group in Germany (2006)
* Fredrik Robelius, Oil analyst and author of "Giant Oil Fields" (2008 to 2018)
Oil production will now begin to decline terminally.
Within a year or two, it is likely that oil prices will skyrocket as supply falls below demand. OPEC cuts could exacerbate the gap between supply and demand and drive prices even higher.
Independent studies indicate that global crude oil production will now decline from 74 million barrels per day to 60 million barrels per day by 2015. During the same time, demand will increase. Oil supplies will be even tighter for the U.S. As oil producing nations consume more and more oil domestically they will export less and less. Because demand is high in China, India, the Middle East, and other oil producing nations, once global oil production begins to decline, demand will always be higher than supply. And since the U.S. represents one fourth of global oil demand, whatever oil we conserve will be consumed elsewhere. Thus, conservation in the U.S. will not slow oil depletion rates significantly.
Alternatives will not even begin to fill the gap. There is no plan nor capital for a so-called electric economy. And most alternatives yield electric power, but we need liquid fuels for tractors/combines, 18 wheel trucks, trains, ships, and mining equipment. The independent scientists of the Energy Watch Group conclude in a 2007 report titled: “Peak Oil Could Trigger Meltdown of Society:”
"By 2020, and even more by 2030, global oil supply will be dramatically lower. This will create a supply gap which can hardly be closed by growing contributions from other fossil, nuclear or alternative energy sources in this time frame."
With increasing costs for gasoline and diesel, along with declining taxes and declining gasoline tax revenues, states and local governments will eventually have to cut staff and curtail highway maintenance. Eventually, gasoline stations will close, and state and local highway workers won’t be able to get to work. We are facing the collapse of the highways that depend on diesel and gasoline powered trucks for bridge maintenance, culvert cleaning to avoid road washouts, snow plowing, and roadbed and surface repair. When the highways fail, so will the power grid, as highways carry the parts, large transformers, steel for pylons, and high tension cables from great distances. With the highways out, there will be no food coming from far away, and without the power grid virtually nothing modern works, including home heating, pumping of gasoline and diesel, airports, communications, and automated building systems.
I wanted to show that there could be a financial benefit that many advisors and even personal finance columnists didn't talk about, with some exceptions such as Michelle Singletary (who writes the Color of Money for the Washington Post) and Jonathan Clements (who used to write for the Wall Street Journal). Maybe it was just me but I felt that the psychological edge was seen as a weakness in making PF decisions, not a strength; the flip side relating to the psychology of wanting to have your home paid off (on the positive side) is that you might ride out market fluctuations better, and in the end become a better investor.
Eh, we've been "running out of oil" since the 1970s. While I think that oil is not a limitless resource, I do think there are many deposits we have not found yet. Devon Energy has made an entire business out of finding these deposits.
I do think that from a political standpoint, we ought not be so dependent upon oil at all. After all, we're sending billions of dollar to countries that don't like us much.
I probably live more frugally than most, with a grocery budget of £10 per week (I eat very healthily) and my attitude to haircuts is to cut my hair with scissors once a year then let it grow: I enjoy a variety of styles as it lengthens and am always complimented on my hair: I use a tiny thumb nail's worth of shampoo/conditioner every 2 days. Eating frugally but wisely brings out the natural shine effects of your hair anyway.
I try to always wear a smile. Cheapest item of clothing there is! Keep eye contact and no one will notice how old your clothes are! Walk instead of driving: you'll soon feel the health benefits. Spend a little time (not money) daily planning ahead and being thankful for the good things in your life. Sunsets are free and so is fresh air, so get out and about more and forget about the TV (I save money by not owning or watching TV).
Just by being definite about what you want and where you intend to be at any time ensures you quit the spending habit: great ways to save thousands every year are: send your credit cards back and only spend cash, visit friends and relatives or enjoy cheap nights away with £20 motel discount rooms instead of holidaying, sell your car and buy a bike, get rid of all insurance, investments and pensions, limit your weekly shopping budget (to £10 like me), discover free entertainment such as walking and nature study, quit buying papers and magazines, quit buying takeaway food and coffees, enjoy life! :)
I think that this article hits on some very good points, but I am surprised that there was little talk of the emotional satisfaction and reduction of stress that many people feel when they finally pay off their mortgage. Check out a few other pro's and con's here if you are interested:
no OfficeMax does not respect their employees. part time people even if you do work 40 hours a week get no benefits what so ever. no sick time, no personal days, and certainly no vacation time. if you don't sell replacement plans your hours get cut. so tell me how you are supposed to provide the customer the best solution when your not going to have any workers when customers do come in the store. and if you do climb the ladder payroll wise your just going to be let go just like they did back in the summer of 08. the highest paid people were cut.
The reason farmers' markets charge the same prices as grocery stores is that there are costs for running the market, staffing it, business taxes, etc. The farmer/producer is also the middle man. This allows small local farms to survive. It also costs more to produce food sustainably: cultivation and labor-intensive work instead of chemical weed control and huge fuel consumption. If you want a local, sustainable food supply, then don't expect it to be cheap.
I realize that there *are* some trendy markets that are ultra expensive, like 'food boutiques'; my comments above refer to the ordinary farmers markets that are simple, not fancy, and where you can buy big bags of local produce for a fair price.
Thursday Bram, another great reason to Do-it-yourself is because you don't have to pay tax on money you *don't* spend on these services. If you earn more money in order to hire the service, you will pay income tax on those earnings, plus any taxes on services (GST here in Canada = 5%). They haven't figured out a way to tax us on the work we do for ourselves!
i work at OfficeMax and your not supposed to combine multiple coupons but sometimes the register will accept it. not sure why they have 10 off 10 dollar purchases. and if your giving a customer a discount so they buy max assurance then you are abusing the policy and can be fired. and to the poster that said he will get 50 reward for spending 50 dollars that's not how it works. we ran the promotion if you spend 50 dollars you received a scratch off card of up to 50 off your next purchase. you could either scratch 5 off 5, 10 off 10, 25 off 25, or 50 off 50. we only had one person get 50. and who ever came up with that promotional idea should be fired.
As we have become more cautious in my family over the things we eat, eating non processed foods and leaning more to all natural things, I noticed the yeast that we use to make our bread... small round uniform circles, not exactley "natural" U could never figure out how they were made either. So I have been scratching my head wondering how can I do this without using that stuff? Here it is! Very Interesting, the answer was in my backyard!
I have accumulated about 22,000.00 in medical debt over the past 5yrs and the collection agency has put a lien on my home, i have been making payments for the last couple of years but they do not even cover the interest i am being charged, my husband was reciently laid off due to the economy (like soo many others!) i cannot even refinance my home becouse it does not appraise high enough to cover even the medical can anyone give me any advice that would be great!!! thanks
Like the writer, I'm also against the popular belief that money is the root of all evils. But when money translates into greed, that is, when people run after money for money's sake, it can really prove demonic. That said, love for money equals love for life.
A really interesting article! It rightfully describes risk the prime factor that should count most in deciding what to insure and what not to. When it comes to health, dental and optical insurances are worth insuring as they constitute two of the most sophisticated and hence risky organs of the body.
It makes sense to me to have an emergency fund of about $5,000 but then after that to put most of your extra money into paying off the mortgage. I mean maybe the stock market will give you better than 6%, but you KNOW that you'll be saving 6% if you put the money toward the mortgage. I'd rather go with the sure thing. I just got my first mortgage and I plan to top off my emergency fund at $5,000 and put my extra money into paying down the mortgage. My savings account definitely doesn't give me 6% so it doesn't make a lot of sense to put money into that while I'm having to pay 6% interest on $70,000. I know I shouldn't think like this, but after having lost about 40% of my money that I had in the stock market I'm more inclined to go the safer route and bet that I won't get higher than 6% returns in the stock market. At least right now.
Some projects are do it yourself projects and some are not. I had some dents in my car and was looking for the cheapest way to get them fixed. I used a company called Dentmagix. These guys do the PDR, they are like artists, very skilled at their work. It is considerably cheaper than the conventional body shop and alot the major insurance companies have started to recognise this as an option. Check them out.
We have only recently brought a place, but we are quite a bit ahead on our mortgage already.
I still think it's a great feeling to see that balance go down, to pay less interest each month and be able to withdraw those additional funds we have paid if we ever have any of those little catastrophes in life.
I'm not so sure about the sharemarket bouncing back. That little saying "past performance is no guarantee of future performance" keeps ringing in my head. The United States Government is going to end up with a huge debt burden which I can't see as sustainable. Then there are other calamities looming on the horizon such as peak oil, overpopulation (which strangely no one ever talks about) and global warming.
Well said! The dogs in movies are well trained animals, and someone has probably spent a lot of time working with them. I don't think a lot of people realize that having a dog requires work (unless you luck into a dog that is perfectly behaved from birth). Especially for labs!
Thanks for the awesome post! I just found another that works for several stations in my area.
mediawebconnect.com
Same scheme as the first for Google searches. Although, I had more luck with my abbreviated state with a comma and space in front of it (, CA as opposed to "California") because it was found more in the address of the businesses than the name of the businesses.
As I have a mood disorder, I cycle A LOT - but after lovely holidays January (the fitness, lose-weight month) can be a downer - It's reassuring to hear that one is not alone in this.
The top story of the year is that global crude oil production peaked in 2008.
The media, governments, world leaders, and public should focus on this issue.
Global crude oil production had been rising briskly until 2004, then plateaued for four years. Because oil producers were extracting at maximum effort to profit from high oil prices, this plateau is a clear indication of Peak Oil.
Then in August and September of 2008 while oil prices were still very high, global crude oil production fell nearly one million barrels per day, clear evidence of Peak Oil (See Rembrandt Koppelaar, Editor of "Oil Watch Monthly," December 2008, page 1) http://www.peakoil.nl/wp-content/uploads/2008/12/2008_december_oilwatch_....
Peak Oil is now.
Credit for accurate Peak Oil predictions (within a few years) goes to the following (projected year for peak given in parentheses):
* Association for the Study of Peak Oil (2007)
* Rembrandt Koppelaar, Editor of “Oil Watch Monthly” (2008)
* Tony Eriksen, Oil stock analyst; Samuel Foucher, oil analyst; and Stuart Staniford, Physicist [Wikipedia Oil Megaprojects] (2008)
* Matthew Simmons, Energy investment banker, (2007)
* T. Boone Pickens, Oil and gas investor (2007)
* U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (2005)
* Kenneth S. Deffeyes, Princeton professor and retired shell geologist (2005)
* Sam Sam Bakhtiari, Retired Iranian National Oil Company geologist (2005)
* Chris Skrebowski, Editor of “Petroleum Review” (2010)
* Sadad Al Husseini, former head of production and exploration, Saudi Aramco (2008)
* Energy Watch Group in Germany (2006)
* Fredrik Robelius, Oil analyst and author of "Giant Oil Fields" (2008 to 2018)
Oil production will now begin to decline terminally.
Within a year or two, it is likely that oil prices will skyrocket as supply falls below demand. OPEC cuts could exacerbate the gap between supply and demand and drive prices even higher.
Independent studies indicate that global crude oil production will now decline from 74 million barrels per day to 60 million barrels per day by 2015. During the same time, demand will increase. Oil supplies will be even tighter for the U.S. As oil producing nations consume more and more oil domestically they will export less and less. Because demand is high in China, India, the Middle East, and other oil producing nations, once global oil production begins to decline, demand will always be higher than supply. And since the U.S. represents one fourth of global oil demand, whatever oil we conserve will be consumed elsewhere. Thus, conservation in the U.S. will not slow oil depletion rates significantly.
Alternatives will not even begin to fill the gap. There is no plan nor capital for a so-called electric economy. And most alternatives yield electric power, but we need liquid fuels for tractors/combines, 18 wheel trucks, trains, ships, and mining equipment. The independent scientists of the Energy Watch Group conclude in a 2007 report titled: “Peak Oil Could Trigger Meltdown of Society:”
"By 2020, and even more by 2030, global oil supply will be dramatically lower. This will create a supply gap which can hardly be closed by growing contributions from other fossil, nuclear or alternative energy sources in this time frame."
With increasing costs for gasoline and diesel, along with declining taxes and declining gasoline tax revenues, states and local governments will eventually have to cut staff and curtail highway maintenance. Eventually, gasoline stations will close, and state and local highway workers won’t be able to get to work. We are facing the collapse of the highways that depend on diesel and gasoline powered trucks for bridge maintenance, culvert cleaning to avoid road washouts, snow plowing, and roadbed and surface repair. When the highways fail, so will the power grid, as highways carry the parts, large transformers, steel for pylons, and high tension cables from great distances. With the highways out, there will be no food coming from far away, and without the power grid virtually nothing modern works, including home heating, pumping of gasoline and diesel, airports, communications, and automated building systems.
Documented here:
http://www.peakoilassociates.com/POAnalysis.html
http://survivingpeakoil.blogspot.com/
I wanted to show that there could be a financial benefit that many advisors and even personal finance columnists didn't talk about, with some exceptions such as Michelle Singletary (who writes the Color of Money for the Washington Post) and Jonathan Clements (who used to write for the Wall Street Journal). Maybe it was just me but I felt that the psychological edge was seen as a weakness in making PF decisions, not a strength; the flip side relating to the psychology of wanting to have your home paid off (on the positive side) is that you might ride out market fluctuations better, and in the end become a better investor.
Chris Martenson has put together a presentation outlining the intersection of several major trends/factors in the economy, the environment and energy.
http://www.chrismartenson.com/crashcourse
I found his charts and graphs to be more comprehensive and compelling.
Even if it one person's opinion, I still find it helpful. Thank you for the list.
Eh, we've been "running out of oil" since the 1970s. While I think that oil is not a limitless resource, I do think there are many deposits we have not found yet. Devon Energy has made an entire business out of finding these deposits.
I do think that from a political standpoint, we ought not be so dependent upon oil at all. After all, we're sending billions of dollar to countries that don't like us much.
I probably live more frugally than most, with a grocery budget of £10 per week (I eat very healthily) and my attitude to haircuts is to cut my hair with scissors once a year then let it grow: I enjoy a variety of styles as it lengthens and am always complimented on my hair: I use a tiny thumb nail's worth of shampoo/conditioner every 2 days. Eating frugally but wisely brings out the natural shine effects of your hair anyway.
I try to always wear a smile. Cheapest item of clothing there is! Keep eye contact and no one will notice how old your clothes are! Walk instead of driving: you'll soon feel the health benefits. Spend a little time (not money) daily planning ahead and being thankful for the good things in your life. Sunsets are free and so is fresh air, so get out and about more and forget about the TV (I save money by not owning or watching TV).
Just by being definite about what you want and where you intend to be at any time ensures you quit the spending habit: great ways to save thousands every year are: send your credit cards back and only spend cash, visit friends and relatives or enjoy cheap nights away with £20 motel discount rooms instead of holidaying, sell your car and buy a bike, get rid of all insurance, investments and pensions, limit your weekly shopping budget (to £10 like me), discover free entertainment such as walking and nature study, quit buying papers and magazines, quit buying takeaway food and coffees, enjoy life! :)
I think that this article hits on some very good points, but I am surprised that there was little talk of the emotional satisfaction and reduction of stress that many people feel when they finally pay off their mortgage. Check out a few other pro's and con's here if you are interested:
http://www.onemillionbucks.net/2008/12/should-i-pay-off-my-house.html
no OfficeMax does not respect their employees. part time people even if you do work 40 hours a week get no benefits what so ever. no sick time, no personal days, and certainly no vacation time. if you don't sell replacement plans your hours get cut. so tell me how you are supposed to provide the customer the best solution when your not going to have any workers when customers do come in the store. and if you do climb the ladder payroll wise your just going to be let go just like they did back in the summer of 08. the highest paid people were cut.
The reason farmers' markets charge the same prices as grocery stores is that there are costs for running the market, staffing it, business taxes, etc. The farmer/producer is also the middle man. This allows small local farms to survive. It also costs more to produce food sustainably: cultivation and labor-intensive work instead of chemical weed control and huge fuel consumption. If you want a local, sustainable food supply, then don't expect it to be cheap.
I realize that there *are* some trendy markets that are ultra expensive, like 'food boutiques'; my comments above refer to the ordinary farmers markets that are simple, not fancy, and where you can buy big bags of local produce for a fair price.
Thursday Bram, another great reason to Do-it-yourself is because you don't have to pay tax on money you *don't* spend on these services. If you earn more money in order to hire the service, you will pay income tax on those earnings, plus any taxes on services (GST here in Canada = 5%). They haven't figured out a way to tax us on the work we do for ourselves!
i work at OfficeMax and your not supposed to combine multiple coupons but sometimes the register will accept it. not sure why they have 10 off 10 dollar purchases. and if your giving a customer a discount so they buy max assurance then you are abusing the policy and can be fired. and to the poster that said he will get 50 reward for spending 50 dollars that's not how it works. we ran the promotion if you spend 50 dollars you received a scratch off card of up to 50 off your next purchase. you could either scratch 5 off 5, 10 off 10, 25 off 25, or 50 off 50. we only had one person get 50. and who ever came up with that promotional idea should be fired.
As we have become more cautious in my family over the things we eat, eating non processed foods and leaning more to all natural things, I noticed the yeast that we use to make our bread... small round uniform circles, not exactley "natural" U could never figure out how they were made either. So I have been scratching my head wondering how can I do this without using that stuff? Here it is! Very Interesting, the answer was in my backyard!
I have accumulated about 22,000.00 in medical debt over the past 5yrs and the collection agency has put a lien on my home, i have been making payments for the last couple of years but they do not even cover the interest i am being charged, my husband was reciently laid off due to the economy (like soo many others!) i cannot even refinance my home becouse it does not appraise high enough to cover even the medical can anyone give me any advice that would be great!!! thanks
We all need to start thinking outside of the box or there will nothing left for future generations
Like the writer, I'm also against the popular belief that money is the root of all evils. But when money translates into greed, that is, when people run after money for money's sake, it can really prove demonic. That said, love for money equals love for life.
A really interesting article! It rightfully describes risk the prime factor that should count most in deciding what to insure and what not to. When it comes to health, dental and optical insurances are worth insuring as they constitute two of the most sophisticated and hence risky organs of the body.
I like the 8 AAA Batteries for $1 at Dollar Tree. They work
pretty good. Just use them soon after purchase.
Spinners of sheep's wool have used Dawn successfully to clean "fresh from the sheep" wool before beginning other preps for spinning. They swear by it.
It makes sense to me to have an emergency fund of about $5,000 but then after that to put most of your extra money into paying off the mortgage. I mean maybe the stock market will give you better than 6%, but you KNOW that you'll be saving 6% if you put the money toward the mortgage. I'd rather go with the sure thing. I just got my first mortgage and I plan to top off my emergency fund at $5,000 and put my extra money into paying down the mortgage. My savings account definitely doesn't give me 6% so it doesn't make a lot of sense to put money into that while I'm having to pay 6% interest on $70,000. I know I shouldn't think like this, but after having lost about 40% of my money that I had in the stock market I'm more inclined to go the safer route and bet that I won't get higher than 6% returns in the stock market. At least right now.
Some projects are do it yourself projects and some are not. I had some dents in my car and was looking for the cheapest way to get them fixed. I used a company called Dentmagix. These guys do the PDR, they are like artists, very skilled at their work. It is considerably cheaper than the conventional body shop and alot the major insurance companies have started to recognise this as an option. Check them out.
We have only recently brought a place, but we are quite a bit ahead on our mortgage already.
I still think it's a great feeling to see that balance go down, to pay less interest each month and be able to withdraw those additional funds we have paid if we ever have any of those little catastrophes in life.
I'm not so sure about the sharemarket bouncing back. That little saying "past performance is no guarantee of future performance" keeps ringing in my head. The United States Government is going to end up with a huge debt burden which I can't see as sustainable. Then there are other calamities looming on the horizon such as peak oil, overpopulation (which strangely no one ever talks about) and global warming.
I wonder if practical skills like this should really be taught in schools. I think practical skills really need to be a focus of the education system.
Well said! The dogs in movies are well trained animals, and someone has probably spent a lot of time working with them. I don't think a lot of people realize that having a dog requires work (unless you luck into a dog that is perfectly behaved from birth). Especially for labs!
Thanks for the awesome post! I just found another that works for several stations in my area.
mediawebconnect.com
Same scheme as the first for Google searches. Although, I had more luck with my abbreviated state with a comma and space in front of it (, CA as opposed to "California") because it was found more in the address of the businesses than the name of the businesses.
As I have a mood disorder, I cycle A LOT - but after lovely holidays January (the fitness, lose-weight month) can be a downer - It's reassuring to hear that one is not alone in this.
myfrugallife.com/blog_pamphyila.html
Boy, am I glad that I learned about computers in my years in offices! But there is always more to digest, as technology keeps on keeping on....