Posted July 16, 2009 - 09:00 by Philip Brewer
Just to be clear, I'm also worried about a surge in inflation, but that's not what I'm talking about here. I don't know the future, so I try to stay away from predictions. But you don't need to know the future to "predict" a surge in the Consumer Price Index. All you need is to know the recent past.
Posted June 12, 2009 - 00:39 by Philip Brewer
The Wall Street Journal has an opinion piece by Arthur Laffer that shows a scary graph of the monetary base, which has surged enormously in the past year. He suggests that this is "potentially far more inflationary" than the monetary policies of the 1970s. I'm as worried about inflation as anybody, and agree that the Fed should already be taking steps to minimize it, but I think Laffer is off-base here.
Posted June 11, 2009 - 06:39 by Philip Brewer
When I went off to college in 1977, inflation was high and rising, but the maximum interest rate you could earn on a savings account was capped by the government at a fraction over 5%. The conventional wisdom was "It's dumb to hold cash when inflation is over the rate you can earn." I absorbed that conventional wisdom, and it led me to make some dumb decisions.
Posted March 24, 2009 - 08:15 by Philip Brewer
Stagflation, the bane of the 1970s, is pretty much the worst situation for ordinary folks. With the economy depressed, jobs are scarce for workers and profits are scarce for business owners. With entrenched inflation, everyone's savings are constantly eroding. The result is that nowhere is safe for your money: not cash, not your business, not the market. With the latest moves by the Fed, I fear we're facing a repeat--only it'll be worse this time: stag-hyperinflation.
Posted November 3, 2008 - 12:07 by Philip Brewer
Every six months, the Treasury sets a new fixed rate for series I savings bonds. After tracking close to the rate on the Treasury's other inflation-indexed bonds during the Clinton administration, the rate was cut sharply starting in 2001, culminating in an interest rate of zero for the past six months. Today, though, the Treasury announced the new rate for the next six months: 0.7%
Posted October 8, 2008 - 07:14 by Philip Brewer
For a decade, starting in the mid-1990s, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates too low and expanded the money supply too quickly. Their theory was that, as long as consumer prices were stable, they must not be creating too much money. We now know that they were wrong.
Posted September 22, 2008 - 18:36 by Xin Lu
About a year ago I wrote an article about the Consumer Price Index that made some friends say that I am a conspiracy theorist, but apparently I am not alone in believing that the government reports statistics that are far from reality. John Williams is an Oakland based economist who has been running the website Shadow Government Statistics for more than five years, and he reports an alternate set of statistics based on his research. He believes that the government has been painting a rosy picture of the economy for many years, and his set of numbers are quite alarming if you believe it.
Posted August 13, 2008 - 11:58 by Philip Brewer
You can always tell when inflation has become ingrained in an economy--you start hearing people say, "Buy now before the price goes up!" I remember hearing that a lot in the late 1970s, but I haven't heard that much so far in the current inflation. (This fact probably gives the Federal Reserve a certain amount of comfort.) I have, though, started to hear its close cousin, "Why save when the interest rate is below the inflation rate?"
Posted May 25, 2008 - 13:07 by Philip Brewer
Every financial calculation that you make is influenced by your expectations for future inflation: how much to borrow, where to put your savings, and whether your last raise was a reason to celebrate or to start looking for a better job. Even small decisions, like whether to buy a couple extra cans of tomato paste, are affected. No dollar amount or interest rate is good or bad, except when compared to inflationary expectations.
Posted May 21, 2008 - 02:52 by Philip Brewer
I eat lunch at a local fast-food place occasionally. My usual order runs to just over $4, so I was annoyed when I realized while walking over there yesterday that I'd forgotten to pick up a nickel or dime--I was going to end up with a pocketful of change. In fact, though, I needn't have given it a thought: My order cost $4.60.
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